Will There Be Third Wave of Covid-19 Virus in India

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The first outbreak of Covid-19 was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Since then, this viral infection has spread across the globe like wildfire. The first case was reported in India on 30th January 2020. While the initial cases were limited to a couple of towns in the state of Kerala, more cities across the country soon accounted for almost half of the reported cases in India. The first wave of Covid-19 was dealt with swiftly with the help of lockdowns. As per current reports, the third wave of the corona is imminent in the country as well. The Covid-19 virus is transmitted through direct contact with the respiratory droplets of the patient. Since many patients are asymptomatic, it was difficult to contain the spread of the viral disease. People were advised to follow safety protocols that included wearing masks at all times, sanitizing their hands regularly as well as keeping a social distance of up to six feet. These restrictions helped curb the first wave of the pandemic in the country. Unfortunately, the second wave was not too far behind. As per current reports, the third wave of the corona is imminent in the country as well. In fact, the third wave Covid symptoms are predicted to be more severe than the first and second wave corona symptoms.

Second Wave of Corona In India

While the world started welcoming the vaccination against the deadly Coronavirus, India started its battle against the second wave of Covid-19. It got its first footing at the beginning of March 2021 and turned out to be more disastrous than the first wave. The country soon ran out of hospital beds, oxygen cylinders, PPE kits, and medications. Scenes of patients waiting in front of hospitals filled TV screens as the world watched in horror. By 30th April 2021, India became the first country to report over four lakh cases within a twenty-four-hour period. Although the vaccination program had rolled out from 16th January 2021, vaccine shortages became the norm. Experts predict the second wave to decline by July 2021 to give way to the third wave Covid in the country.

Third Wave of Corona: To Be Or Not To Be?

Although India is yet to recover from its battle with the second wave of Covid, it seems the country needs to get ready to gear up for its next bout with the third wave of corona. A team of researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur led by Professors Mahendra Verma and Rajesh Ranjan has come up with an epidemiological model that is designed to compute the expected number of people that may be infected by this contagious viral infection over time in a closed population. According to the researchers, the worst-case scenario as per the model is predicted to be around five lakh cases per day by September. It is apparent that the question is no longer will there be third wave of Covid in India? But rather, when will the third wave of corona begin? The susceptible-infected-recovered model, also known as SIR predicts three likely scenarios of covid-19 3rd wave in India.

Scenario 1:

The team predicts the third wave of corona in the area where restrictions are lifted to peak by October. Fortunately, this peak is predicted to be lower than the second wave. The model predicts a maximum of 3.2 lakh cases to be recorded daily.

Scenario 2:

According to the researchers, new and more contagious variants of the SARS-CoV-2 may emerge. With the absence of restrictions or lockdowns, this can cause the third wave Covid stats to be worse than the second wave. In fact, in this scenario the third wave Covid India is expected to appear by September. The worst-case third wave Covid predictions by the model are almost five lakh cases per day.

Scenario 3:

The third scenario predicted by the model may not begin till late October. In this scenario, stricter restrictions and lockdowns are implemented, which helps bring down the peak of the third wave Covid to less than two lakh cases per day. This will be lower than the second wave, giving the country a chance to escape the third wave of corona. Under the assumption that the country will be fully unlocked by mid-July, the third wave of corona is predicted to peak between the months of September and October in 2021. The good news is that the model has not accounted for the effect of the vaccination program in the country, which will have a major impact on the transmission chain of this contagious virus. Although the three scenarios predict different peaks in the third wave, it is essential to note that they all still predict a higher peak than the first wave. So the country must be prepared to deal with the collateral damage. The second wave has already laid bare the many drawbacks in the current medical system. While other countries in the world seem to have gone through the second wave without too much trouble, India barely slunk by without collapsing on her legs. With the right reparation and restrictions in place, maybe India can be a part of the Covid-19 third wave countries where the damage is minimal. In order to contain the third wave Covid India, it is essential to follow the restrictions and minimize social interactions as much as possible, In case you suspect that you may have come in contact with a Covid-19 patient, the COVID-19 Online Consultations can help you figure out the next step. Experienced doctors are available for COVID-19 Consultation for Adults as well as COVID-19 Consultation for kids. So do not panic and wait for the doctor to tell you what to do next. The third wave Covid symptoms are expected to be slightly different from the first and second waves. So you need to be on guard and isolate yourself as soon as you suspect you may have the Covid-19 virus. The 3rd wave of Covid means that the virus is not done with the planet yet. The only way to beat the 3rd wave of Covid in world is to get vaccinated as soon as possible. India has rolled out a vaccination program for everyone above 18 years of age. Getting vaccinated will help slow down the transmission chain and also lower the peak of the third wave. At the end of the day, there is no doubt that the third wave of Corona will hit India, so get vaccinated and follow the safety protocols.

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